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Journal of Advances in Applied Mathematics
JAAM > Volume 5, Number 3, July 2020

Predictive Modelling of the COVID - 19 Epidemic in Cameroon with Innovative Models

Download PDF  (3019.8 KB)PP. 117-137,  Pub. Date:July 17, 2020
DOI: 10.22606/jaam.2020.53003

Author(s)
Jimbo Henri Claver, Ngongo Isidore Séraphin, Fotso Simeon, Waffo Guy, Andjiga Gabriel Nicolas, Etoua Rémy Malgoire, Tchantcho Bertrand
Affiliation(s)
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, RISE, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
Department of Mathematics, ENS, University of Yaoundé I, Cameroon
Department of Mathematics, University of Yaoundé 1, Cameroon
Department of Computer Engineering, ENSPY, Cameroon
Department of Mathematics, ENS, University of Yaoundé I, Cameroon
Department of Mathematics, ENSPY. Yaounde 1, Cameroon
Department of Mathematics, ENS, University of Yaoundé I, Cameroon
Abstract
The mathematical model was recently used for COVID-19 in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the disease first broke out. It helped to outline the interventions needed to reduce the number of people at risk of catching the virus. The SEIR models were also used to predict interventions during the 2009 influenza pandemic in the US. In this project we will develop new models that are able to capture more features that the previous ones. Based on the official data modeling, this research work will study the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) propagation dynamics in Cameroon. The error between the model and the official data curve will be estimated. At the same time, it will realize the forward prediction of the epidemic situation, and the relevant analysis will help Cameroon to make important decisions on the epidemic evolution over time.
Keywords
Covid 19 modelling, SIR, SSIR, SEIR, SSEIR, model loss, model selection,reproduction number, stability analysis.
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