Journal of Advances in Economics and Finance

Download PDF (342.7 KB) PP. 31 - 38 Pub. Date: August 1, 2020

DOI: 10.22606/jaef.2020.53001

• OBAMBI Chardel Cardorel^*
  School of Economics, Shandong University, Jinan, China
• GNOMBLEROU Edna
  School of International Education, GuangXi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning, China
• ANOUBA Acha Arnaud Martial
  School of business, Hohai University, China

The paper comprehensively and candidly analyzes the tendency and direction of imports and exports of Chile by employing a time series analysis for data ranging from the year 1990 to 2018. The paper analyzed the patterns of the imports, exports and balance trade and consequently predict the growth rates that Chile has witnessed in the past 29 years. The regression model will be employed to compound the growth rates which will help in forecasting the trend of subsequent imports and exports. The results show that both imports and exports have been increasing and decreasing alternatively. The seasonality was observed to be for a cycle of 5 years. However, the last two years reveal that the exports and imports have been experiencing upward curve. The regression model is employed to determine the constant and the slope of the imports, exports and balance of trade upon which forecasts can be made for subsequent years. The results from the moving averages and linear regressions of individual models have revealed that the country is going to experience a decrease in imports and exports in the near future due to its seasonal cycle pattern.

imports, exports, trade balance, trends, Chile

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