Isaac Scientific Publishing

Journal of Advances in Economics and Finance

Contribution of Agricultural Exports to Economic Growth in Pakistan

Download PDF (140.2 KB) PP. 45 - 52 Pub. Date: November 30, 2020

DOI: DOI: 10.22606/jaef.2020.54001

Author(s)

  • Zaib-un-nisa*
    Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan

Abstract

The main objective of this analysis is to explore and quantify the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in Pakistan. We estimated the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and agricultural and non-agricultural exports for Pakistan using the Johansen co-integration technique for the period. The results of the study show that agricultural exports have a significant and negative effect on economic growth, while the elasticity of agricultural exports is 0.58. Furthermore, there is a bi-directional causality in agricultural exports and in real GDP. It is suggested to promote non-agricultural exports.

Keywords

Pakistan, agricultural exports, non-agricultural exports, Johansen co-integration, labor force

References

[1] 1. Ahmad, J. and Kwan, A.C.C. (1991). Causality between exports and economic growth. Economic Letters, 37, 243-248.

[2] 2. Aurangzeb (2006). Exports, productivity and economic growth in Pakistan: a time series analysis. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 11(1), 1-18.

[3] 3. Bahamani-Oskooee, M., Mohtadi, H. and Shabsigh, G. (1991). Exports, growth and causality. Journal of Development Economics, 36, 405-415.

[4] 4. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Alse, J. (1993). Export growth and economic growth: an application of cointegration and error-correction modeling. Journal of Developing Areas, 27(4), 535-542.

[5] 5. Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and growth: further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5, 181–189.

[6] 6. Balassa, B. (1985). Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock. Journal of Development Economics, 18, 23–35.

[7] 7. Chenery, H.B. and Strout, A. (1966). Foreign assistance and economic development. American Economic Review, 56, 680-733.

[8] 8. Chow, P.C.Y. (1987). Causality between export growth and industrial development. Journal of Development Economics, 26, 55-63.

[9] 9. Dawson, P.J. (2005). Agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries. Agricultural Economics, 33, 145-152.

[10] 10. Dickey, D. and Fuller W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.

[11] 11. Dodaro, S. (1993). Exports and Growth: A reconsideration of causality. Journal of Developing Areas, 27, 227-244.

[12] 12. Dutt, S.D. and Ghosh, D. (1994). An empirical investigation of the export growtheconomic growth relationship. Applied Economic Letters, 1, 44-48.

[13] 13. Economic Survey. Ministry of Finance, Pakistan (various issues).

[14] 14. Ekanayake, E.M. (1999). Exports and economic growth in asian developing countries: co-integration and error correction models. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), 43-56.

[15] 15. Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics,12, 59-73.

[16] 16. Ghatak, S., Milner, C. and Utkulu, U. (1997). Exports, export composition and growth: cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia. Applied Economics, 29(2), 213-223.

[17] 17. Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric and cross-spectral method. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.

[18] 18. Granger, C.W.J. (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.

[19] 19. Granger, C.W.J., Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regression in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.

[20] 20. Contribution of Agricultural Exports to Economic Growth

[21] 21. Greene, W.H. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc.

[22] 22. Heller, P.S. and Porter, R.C. (1978). Exports and growth: an empirical reinvestigation. Journal of Development Economics, 5, 191-193.

[23] 23. Holman, J.A. and Graves, P.E. (1995). Korean exports economic growth: an econometric reassessment. Journal of Economic Development, 20(2), 45-56.

[24] 24. Islam, M.N. (1988). Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality. Applied Economics, 30, 415-425.

[25] 25. Jin, J.C. and Yu, E.S.U. (1995). The causal relationship between exports and income. Journal of Economic Development, 20(1), 131-140.

[26] 26. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.

[27] 27. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with application to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, 52, 169-210.

[28] 28. Johnston, B.F. and Mellor, J.W. (1961). The role of agriculture in economic development. American Economic Review, 51, 566-593.

[29] 29. Jung, W.S. and Marshall, P.J. (1985). Exports, growth and causality in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 18, 1-12.

[30] 30. Khan, A.H. and Saqib, N. (1993). Exports and economic growth: The Pakistan experience. International Economic Journal, 7(3), 55-64.

[31] 31. Kormendi, R.C. and Mequire, P.G. (1985). Macroeconomic determinants of growth: cross-country evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(2), 141-163.

[32] 32. Kugler, P. (1991). Growth, exports and cointegration: An empirical investigation. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive, 127(2), 73-81.

[33] 33. Kunst, R.M. and Marin, D. (1989). On exports and productivity: A causal analysis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 699–703.

[34] 34. Kwa and Bassoume (2007). Exploring the linkages between agricultural exports and sustainable development. Ecofair trade dialogue [Discussion Paper] No. 2, 1-38.

[35] 35. Levin, A. and Raut, L.K. (1997). Complementarities between exports and human capital in economic growth: evidence from the semi-industrialized countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 46, 155-174.

[36] 36. Michaely, M. (1977). Exports and growth: an empirical investigation. Journal of Development Economics, 4, 49-53.

[37] 37. Nadeem, M. (2007). Pakistan Agricultural Export Performance in the Light of Trade

[38] 38. Liberalization and Economic Reforms. [Working Papers] 45854, University of Balochistan, Commerce Department.

[39] 39. Oxley, L. (1993). Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in portugal, 1865- 1985. Economic Letters, 43, 163-166. 146

[40] 40. Rahman, M. and Mustafa, M. (1998). Dynamics of real exports and real economic growth in 13 selected Asian countries. Journal of Economic Development, 22(2), 81-95.

[41] 41. Ram, R. (1987). Exports and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from time-series and cross-section data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36, 51-72.

[42] 42. Sanjuan-Lopez, A.I. and Dawson, P.J. (2010). Agricultural exports and economic growth in developing countries: A panel co-integration approach. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(3), 565-583.

[43] 43. Serletis, A. (1992). Export growth and Canadian economic development. Journal of Development Economics, 38, 133-145.

[44] 44. Solow, R.M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economic and Statistics. 39, 312-320.

[45] 45. Sprout, R.V.A. and Weaver, J.H. (1993). Exports and economic growth in a simultaneous equations model. Journal of Developing Areas, 27(3), 289-306.

[46] 46. Sung-Shen, N., Biswas, B. and Tribedy, G. (1990). causality between exports and economic growth: an empirical study. Journal of Economic Development, 15(1), 47-61.

[47] 47. Tyler, W. (1981). Growth and export expansion in less developed countries: some empirical evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 9, 121-130.

[48] 48. Ukpolo, V. (1994). Export composition and growth of selected low-income African countries: evidence from time-series data. Applied Economics, 26(5), 445-49.

[49] 49. Voivodas, C.S. (1973). Exports, foreign capital inflows and economic growth. Journal of International Economics, 22, 337-349.50. Voivodas, C.S. (1973). Exports, foreign capital inflows and economic growth. Journal of International Economics, 22, 337-349.50. Voivodas, C.S. (1973). Exports, foreign capital inflows and economic growth. Journal of International Economics, 22, 337-349.